London: Andrew Davies was on his way to New Zealand to work on a Doctor Who exhibition when his flight experienced severe turbulence. The initial leg from London to Singapore was calm until the aircraft suddenly encountered turbulence so intense that it felt like a rollercoaster ride. Davies recounted being forcefully pressed into his seat and experiencing a sudden drop that caused his iPad to hit him in the head and coffee to spill over him, resulting in chaos within the cabin.
According to BBC, data from the National Transportation Safety Board reveals that since 2009, the U.S. has seen 207 severe injuries due to turbulence, with 166 involving crew members who may not have been seated. Experts warn that climate change could exacerbate these incidents, as atmospheric shifts are predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of turbulence. Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist, predicts a possible doubling or tripling of severe turbulence worldwide in the coming decades.
Severe turbulence, characterized by up and down movements exerting more than 1.5g-force, is becoming more frequent. Estimates indicate around 5,000 severe turbulence incidents occur annually out of over 35 million global flights. The International Civil Aviation Organization’s annual safety report states that nearly 40% of severe passenger injuries in 2023 were due to turbulence. The North Atlantic route, in particular, has seen a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the last 40 years.
Climate change is a driving factor behind the increase in turbulence. It affects convective and clear-air turbulence, with a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture and generating intense thunderstorms. For instance, a report by Singapore’s Transport Safety Investigation Bureau linked Andrew Davies’s turbulent flight to developing convective activity over south Myanmar. Studies suggest a 1°C rise in global temperature increases lightning strikes by 12%.
Clear-air turbulence, caused by disturbed air around the jet stream, is also expected to rise. This type of turbulence is challenging to detect visually, unlike convective turbulence associated with thunderstorms. Rapid changes in wind speed and direction in the jet stream create turbulent air, posing risks for aircraft traveling through these regions.
The growing threat of severe turbulence raises concerns about potential injuries or fatalities. For passengers like Davies, the prospect of increased turbulence is worrying. A YouGov survey found that over a fifth of UK adults fear flying, and worsening turbulence could exacerbate these fears. Despite aircraft wings being designed to withstand turbulent air, economic costs for airlines are significant. AVTECH suggests turbulence-related expenses range from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline annually.
Efforts to mitigate turbulence’s impact include improved forecasting and strategic planning by airlines. Southwest Airlines in the US has adjusted its cabin service procedures to reduce turbulence-related injuries. Korean Airlines has stopped serving noodles due to increased turbulence incidents, addressing safety concerns for passengers.
Innovative solutions for turbulence-proofing aircraft are also being explored. Researchers have studied barn owls’ flight mechanics to design wings that stabilize aircraft during turbulence. Austrian start-up Turbulence Solutions claims to have developed technology to counteract turbulence in light aircraft. Meanwhile, AI technologies like Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON) are being researched to anticipate and adjust for turbulence in real-time.
Despite the challenges posed by increasing turbulence, experts argue that it remains primarily an annoyance rather than a dire threat to aviation safety. For passengers like Andrew Davies, taking precautions such as keeping seat belts fastened can mitigate risks during turbulent flights.